Your personal market value “divining rod”

Go out there as a “dowser” to learn about homes in your chosen neighborhood. You will determine market value better than any Realtor or appraiser or homeowner because you will have been comparing homes, checking features against price, and meeting Sellers.

There is long-standing folklore about those interesting people who walk around with a divining rod searching for water and the best place to dig for a well. Those folks call themselves “dowsers.”

“Dowsing is as strictly defined the claimed ability to discover underground sources of water or metals by means of a ‘dowsing rod.’ Another term used is ‘divining.'”

While that may be myth, there’s something to be said for developing your own ability as a “dowser” when shopping for a home. Especially in these crazy times when Sellers stand firm on prices from 2005 and refuse to price the house to sell. The fact is, without Buyers driving the market prices down, those prices won’t change on their own. And there are not many Buyers walking the streets these days.

If you have decided that you must own a home now—regardless of market craziness—then you’re obviously going to be out there on the streets looking for a home to buy.

With reluctant Sellers and a dearth of Buyers, what’s a person to do?

I say, “DOWSE!” (is that actually a verb?)

Your “divining rod” as it were, is your own personal market value indicator. You create this divining rod by researching property values in your chosen neighborhood.

1. Research the values using internet tools. The ‘net resources available for this are many and varied: propertyshark.com, zillow.com, MLS.com, and Realtor.com are good starters. But the internet is not the be all and end all for information about the home you wish to buy. Don’t fall into the trap of relying solely on the ‘net for your research.

2. Get out there and look at [tag]houses[/tag]. There is no substitute for visiting houses in person. Whether you do this on appointments with [tag]Realtors[/tag] or just by visiting open houses on the weekends (I recommend BOTH methods), you must undertake this important facet of your research for a home.

When you are looking at lots of homes—both online and in person—you will soon develop your “divining rod” and you’ll be a home-buying-dowser!

You will get a sense of the features of different homes at different price points.

You will learn the quirks of the people selling homes and how it is possible for someone to have a ridiculous expectation of what their home is worth.

You will get to see yourself more clearly—in your mind’s eye—in the [tag]home of your dreams[/tag].

Most of all, you will develop a personal perspective on prices and thus market value in your desired neighborhood.

With that experience, you will be a better negotiator on price. Because you will have developed a “gut instinct” (or divining rod!), you can better set a maximum price you’re willing to pay for any given home. You can see past ugly wallpaper and ancient carpeting; you can better understand when a Seller is being completely unreasonable.

Get ready to go out there as a “dowser” to learn about homes in your chosen neighborhood. You will determine market value better than any Realtor or appraiser or homeowner because you will have been comparing homes, compiling features versus price, and meeting Sellers.

Dowse away!
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Technorati here I come…!

My Master of all things WEB, Gary, told me to get hooked up, synched up, registered, included, mentioned, linked, and otherwise connected with Technorati.

Mission Accomplished today!

It’s a Brave New World.

By the by, I get a lot of compliments from folks about my site, especially from other mortgage and real estate professionals. I can’t take the credit for the excellent look and feel of the site beyond the copy and blog entries I’ve written. Gary AT HATrack.net is your man if you’re looking for a cool, professional-looking website. His service is superb and prices very reasonable—in fact, I’d be so bold as to say his prices are about the best you’re going to find for website development.

Baseball and words of wisdom

I’m suddenly excited by the prospect of a “Subway Series” here in NY as the Yankees continue their rocket launch into the post-season. The other NY team leads the National League. Woot! October, here we come…!

And, as George Will and so many others have learned, there is much wisdom to be gleaned from the game of baseball that we can use in our daily lives.

I came across two quotes today that I’m certain can be applied to the [tag]homebuying[/tag] experience and the [tag]mortgage[/tag] business.

The first, from a NYTimes.com article about A-Rod and Warren Buffett, features mighty words from the world’s second-richest man about investing:

“The most important thing in investing,” Buffett said, “is what (Red Sox hitting star, Ted) Williams said was the most important thing in hitting” — waiting for the right pitch.

“What’s nice about investing is you don’t have to swing at pitches,” Buffett said. “You can watch pitches come in one inch above or one inch below your navel, and you don’t have to swing. No umpire is going to call you out. You can wait for the pitch you want.”

Those folks familiar with my viewpoint on [tag]negotiating[/tag], including the ability to get up and walk away from the bargaining table, will see where I’m going with this.

The “[tag]dream house[/tag]” exists in your mind. You can make just about any house into that [tag]dream home[/tag]. Therefore, you should never “fall in love” with any given [tag]house[/tag]. The bottom line of negotiating the purchase of your home should be your comfort level with the [tag]monthly payment[/tag], and that’s based on the price you pay. If you can sit tight and wait for “the right pitch” then you will find not only that your negotiating skills have improved, but you will find the right house.

The second baseball bit is also from NYTimes.com today. Mariano Rivera, the famed closer for the Yankees, is still going strong after 13 years in the majors. And he’s still confounding hitters with his brilliant “cutter” pitch.

And ever year fans and journalists and other Major Leaguers speculate on whether or not “Mo” still has what it takes.

Here’s his response: ” “It happens every year, so I don’t get offended,” Rivera said. “People have the right to say what they want to say. That’s not what I feel, but I cannot tell people what to do or what to say about me. I always know who I am and what I’m capable of doing.”

I LOVE that! Confidence in your abilities is what brings any professional to the top of the field.

Often I have met resistance from folks on the ‘net for my opinions on things like recommending 30yr [tag]Fixed rate mortgage[/tag] loans instead of [tag]ARMS[/tag] and other “exotica.” I’ve stood my ground no matter the weight of popular opinion against me—especially from other mortgage professionals.

That’s difficult to do when the business world around you is moving fast and furious with crazy loan offerings like Neg-Am I/O 2/28 [tag]ARM loans[/tag] and potential clients focus on what they want to hear instead of advice that has their best interest at heart for the long term.

In the end, like Mo and his cutter, I managed to keep coming back and closing loans. Where are the other mortgage pro’s now?

Go Yankees…!
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When is the best time of year to buy a home?

If you know that buying a home is the right thing to do for your own personal reasons, then YOU make the time. YOU determine the “when.”

Is there a “best” time of year to buy a home?

Is there a time of year when Sellers are more willing to negotiate because they are more desperate?

When is that time? When?

If you trust your fundamentals, if you know that buying a home is the right thing to do for your own personal reasons, then YOU make the time. YOU determine the “when.”

Maybe it’s because I teach my clients how to negotiate like piranhas.

Maybe it’s because I’ve been looking at (and dreaming of) real estate since I was in my twenties living in an apartment in Astoria.

Maybe it’s because of my eighteen years in the mortgage business working all year ’round through all kinds of markets.

Whatever my reasons, I will say to you this: YOU make the time because YOU get out there and find, force and MAKE the deal that you’re happy with.

The “when” is not based on the market; rather YOU determine the when by shopping and finding and making your deal.

I believe in negotiating hard and tough and forcing a price. I believe in getting up and walking away from the table.

I believe the “dream house” exists in our minds, therefore you can never truly “fall in love” with a house.

I believe you, as a Buyer, truly control your own destiny and I believed that even when the market was overheated and Sellers were insane. (In my long experience, Sellers are ALWAYS insane! You just have to search until you find one who’s willing to be a bit more reasonable than the rest!)

Maybe it’s because I believe it’s all up to YOU.

Make your own Supply to meet your Demand

Toss economic theory out the window. If you are ready to buy a home—for your own reasons—then it’s time to make your own economic theories and make ’em stick.

So you know you definitely want to buy your own home. No matter the market conditions, interest rates, or status of A-Rod’s quest to hit Home Run #500, you have your reasons.

If that’s the case, how then to find a house at a price you’re willing to pay?

There is a glut of homes available for sale, but you can be pretty sure there is also a glut of Sellers out there with unrealistic expectations as to the price they’ll accept. And those expectations might very likely be out of line with your personal viewpoint on market value.
Back in Economics 101 we were taught about Supply and Demand, and how one affects the other, especially regards price.

I say, chuck the economic theory out the window. If you are ready to buy a home—for your own reasons—then it’s time to make your own economic theories and make ’em stick.

Here’s how, then, to find the Supply of houses you’d be willing to buy and thus meet your own personal Demand.

1. Determine a monthly payment you’re comfortable with.

When you are prequalified, your mortgage professional will calcluate for you the monthly payments on a maximum loan based on your income. If the maximum loan you’re qualified for has a payment beyond your comfort level, then ask your mortgage pro to “step it down.” You’ll have a payment you’re comfortable with and you’ll know, based on the new calculations, your maximum price.

2. Shop, shop, shop.

Create your own “gut-sense” of market value. You do this by looking at homes—in person—in your chosen neighborhood and learning the price points of different houses with different amenities and sizes. Look at a lot of houses.

When you are out shopping for a home on a Saturday and a Sunday, make offers. In New York you can make as many offers as you like; until you sign a contract of sale with your attorney, you’re not committed to anything. This is a good way to get at the essence of a Seller’s mindset: are they serious about selling, and what price do they really have in mind? At worst you’ll find out just how unrealistic a Seller is with price expectations. When you meet those kinds of Sellers, it’s time to move on, and you haven’t lost much time “falling in love” with that house!
While negotiating offers, determine the maximum price for any given house. You set that price by trusting your “gut sense” of market values because you’ve been out looking at lots and lots and lots of houses.

When you negotiate offers, first with your opening price and then up to your maximum price you create your own opportunities for “corrected prices” by seeking out the Homeowners who will sell to you at YOUR price.


3. Trust your “stuff.”

In baseball, when a pitcher is a bit flummoxed, the catcher or coach will come out to the mound and say, “Trust your stuff.”

When you’re shopping for your home, the “stuff” is all that homework you’ve done by looking at homes in your chosen market, developing an instinct as to true market price.

The second ingredient in your “stuff” is the knowledge of your personal “fundamentals.” These fundamentals exist with you, not out in the ether expressed on some internet site somewhere as an unfathomable variable in a real property valuation equation. YOU are the equation: your instinct, and your fundamentals. Taken together, it’s your “stuff,” and you should trust it!

The fundamentals are very simply:

-Do you want to rent or own?
-Can you locate a house at a price you’re comfortable with?
-Will you own that house for a long enough period of time to make sense considering how much money you’ll invest to make the purchase?
-Are there intangible benefits to owning that you want to realize, and that you absolutely cannot obtain by renting?

Those are the fundamentals.

A lot of people think there should be some baseline, some pre-defined “bottom” of the market and a condition of economic equilibrium at which point it makes sense to buy a home. They think there is some fixed equation like the Pythagorean Theorem when it comes to real estate market prices and timing.

Umm, no. There’s no such thing. Take it from someone with 18 years professional and 21 years personal experience with real estate.

Homeownership is what you make of it, quite literally. It starts with a dream, continues with your comfort level with the numbers, and finishes with your decision as to your own personal fundamentals.

Confusion, Obfuscation, Misdirection or just a plain old Scam?

Blatant scamming by a mortgage professional. I don’t care how the correspondent for the Times reads it, I see it for what it really is: a scam.

This is my opinion, of course—my IMHO—but one based on what I know of this biz in which I work and the many less-than-scrupulous “pros” who’ve been prowling like hyenas these past couple of years.
The article at NYTimes.com focuses on the despicable ARM loan, specifically those short term fixed ARMS (2/28’s being the most notorious) with low teaser rates fixed for a while before a conversion to an adjustable rate. Many, many, many of those loans are adjusting now. Many more will adjust in the fall according to statistics cited in the article.

But, I digress; back to the scam part.

The blatant scamming mortgage slimebag part is the story of the California business consultant who, when contacted by the Times correspondent for a background interview with homeowners with ARM loans, doesn’t even know she has an ARM loan! The Times correspondent received this woman’s name from aforesaid scamming mortgage slimebag when queried as to a list of ARM customers.

Sorry, but I don’t believe the mortgage person for a second when he responds sheepishly that she just didn’t realize the fact she had an ARM not a fixed rate mortgage.

WHAT!?!

How could a business consultant misunderstand something so basic, so important and so apparent in the black & white of the closing documents?

By way of answering that question, I provide the following background:

I heard a story recently from a paralegal who closes loans for banks. The story was of a closing where the borrower was signing docs for an Interest Only ARM loan. The borrower asked the paralegal if what he was reading on the Note was correct because he was told by his mortgage “professional” that he was getting a fixed rate, regular amortizing loan.

When the paralegal acknowledged the truth apparent to the borrower’s own eyes, the mortgage person put his boss on the phone with the paralegal. The boss proceeded to tell the para to “shut the hell up.”

The para was then asked to leave the room. After a fifteen or twenty minute conference behind closed doors between the borrower and the mortgage “pro” the documents were signed and the closing completed. Apparently the mortgage pro convinced the borrower that he was in fact getting a fixed rate loan, NOT an I/O ARM!

What do you think of that? I’d say it is pretty obvious how that business consultant “didn’t realize” she had an ARM loan. She was told by her trusted mortgage advisor that she was signing for a fixed rate loan.

The Times correspondent puts the whole mess down to an “…honest misunderstanding in which the broker believed that he had explained the terms of the loans more clearly than he had.”

Oh, rubbish!

The borrower has her closing documents, including the Note. Did she not ever READ the Note at the closing? Or was she just told, “Sign here, here, here, and HERE.”

I’ll bet dollars to donuts she didn’t have an attorney representing her at the closing. Oh yes I would.

Party Tricks

I’ve just read a funny article at NYTimes.com written by a self-confessed “information addict” and her quest to discern—several times a day, apparently—the value of her home and thus her potential wealth (or lack thereof) at any given moment in time using a myriad of internet resources. (I know that sentence is cumbersome, but so are the activities of our information-seeking heroine!)

At one point she likens the activity to party tricks, “… by announcing to our friends all kinds of delicious snippets that once were considered intimate, known mainly to brokers or people with enough time to drive to the courthouse to flip through musty files.”

IMHO, I’d have to agree with the party tricks bit, but I’d have to disagree with the notion that this information was “known” to brokers.

Certainly property value information has long been available to brokers, but that doesn’t mean they were either aware of it or using it on a daily basis. I don’t know how many times in my 18 year career I have seen a house listing that was beyond the scope of reasonable or how many times I’ve had to explain to a broker that the house didn’t appraise only to be met with a blank stare (on the other end of the telephone).

While this information has been more readily accessible to real estate and mortgage professionals, that doesn’t mean we all walked around accessing the info; certainly not to the degree the NYTimes.com correspondent does for her own home using the ‘net.

As for the “party tricks,” yah, that’s about the best way to categorize such an activity. I mean, what else can you possibly hope to do with this information? How does this help you unless you are about to make a serious decision about whether to sell your home or buy one?

I don’t even think it helps you in determining whether or not to refinance. As the correspondent points out, “After looking at the most recent comparable sales, Mr. Raful said my house was worth $100,000 more than the highest online estimate.” Mr. Raful is the appraiser who appraised her house when last she refinanced.

Read the article and have a good chuckle. And keep your “slightly-cynical” hat firmly positioned on your head as you read: this “readily available” information isn’t useful to most folks on most (if not ALL) days of the week, most of the time, most every year. Like a lot of stuff on the internet, there’s accurate and then there’s just plain silly.

My favorite quote from the article is by a Professor Shiv, an associate professor of marketing at Stanford University: “The Internet makes it easy to get too much information, from too many conflicting sources, and all it’s going to do is to give you ecstasy on some days and pain on others.”

Here, here.

Anyone have any better party tricks?

New, New, New!

I haven’t written for awhile as I’ve been busy searching for, and making a transition to a new company.

Lots of NEW things soon to happen, and I’ll keep you posted when they do.  So, watch out for NEW!

Credit Basics: Let’s Get Started

It’s more important than ever for consumers to understand some fundamental issues about their credit reports.

This week I’m going to write some articles related to Credit. I’m prompted to do so by the many questions I get from prospective and current clients regarding their credit reports. With the recent Sub-Prime mortgage meltdown, I think it’s more important than ever for consumers to understand some fundamental issues about their credit reports.

Another reason for this series is to slough away unneccessary information, advertising for credit stuff you don’t need, and my constant desire to just tell it straight.

Here then, some Basics:

1. You can get a free report once a year from each of the three bureaus:
http://www.annualcreditreport.com

Personally, I think that’s all you really need to do: check it once a year. You get one free report a year and that should really be enough to stay on top of your credit score and to correct errors on your report. This should help you avoid spending money on those silly subscription services the three Credit Bureaus (Trans-Union, Equifax, and Experian) are trying to sell you everyday. (More on the bureaus and their marketing campaign later in this series)

If you’re worried about identity theft, you can always put a notification on your report that you must be contacted before any new credit is approved. You can include your telephone number in that credit alert message. A creditor must contact you to verify that you are actually the person who applied for the new credit. This is a simple method to help prevent identity theft.

(I’ll have more on the identity theft issue later in this series)

2. If you check your report and discover mistakes, fix them yourself. NEVER pay anyone to do this. The Federal Trade Commission has an excellent tutorial to guide you through the process of credit repair:
http://www.ftc.gov/bcp/conline/pubs/credit/repair.htm

The cost to you? Your time and possibly some 39 cent stamps (yes, they’re still 39 cents as of this writing!)

The secret to credit repair success? Follow up! (More on credit repair later in the series)

3. Want to know how your credit score is calculated? Try MyFico.com:

http://www.myfico.com/CreditEducation/?fire=1

I can’t tell you how many times I’m asked this question. Unfortunately, there really is no simple answer. The credit score calculation methods used by the credit bureaus are complicated. That having been said, you can learn some basics to help you maintain or improve your scores. (Yup, that’s right, more on this topic later in the series. Do you detect a pattern here?)

4. If you have superb credit, consider opening a credit card with a bank based in the state of Arkansas. The reason most credit card companies base their operations in either Delaware or South Dakota is the law does not provide for an interest rate cap. Arkansas has a very reasonable cap, which in the 16 years I’ve known about it, has made credit cards from that state the best deal around.

5. If you had problems before or you’re new to the credit card arena, ConsumerAction.org is one of the best resources I’ve found on the ‘net for advice on rebuilding or starting anew a credit history:
http://www.consumer-action.org/

(I’ll be writing about “new” credit from the perspective of anyone who’s planning on buying a home)

Limericks from a Craigslist Contributor: Pelham Bay

Here are some witty Limericks from one of my Craigslist pals, “Pelham Bay.”

You spend enough time chatting on the Craigslist Housing Forum, and you get to “know” the regular folks by their handles. There are a lot of smart, decent people who contribute to the many and varied conversation threads there.

Here are some witty Limericks from one of my Craigslist pals, “Pelham Bay.” Enjoy.

There once was a man from Hempstead,
Who was known as a real Bubblehead.
He held on to his money,
Which was really quite funny,
Cause the house he lived in was rented.

*****************************************************
A lady named Cindy MaGee
Sought an apartment without any fee.
The broker said okay,
But first she’d have to pay,
$2500 up front for the key.

******************************************************
A friendly young guy named Bert,
Wanted to buy without getting hurt.
An ARM zero-down subprime,
From the lender, I.M. Slime,
And now our friend Bert is eating dirt.

****************************************************
FSBO she read in the ad.
“Well”, she thought, “This can’t be all bad”.
So she went out and bought,
Without giving it a thought,
She’s now living in a condemned leaky pad.

***************************************************
Housing prices are falling each day.
If you wait, then the less you will pay.
I decided to wait,
For the very perfect date,
Now I sleep in a barn on the hay.

**************************************************
Old-world charm, a real “must-see”.
Hurry now and you’ll get it “no fee”.
Leaky windows and doors,
Chipped paint on the floors,
How lucky can a poor renter be ?